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Uncharted Waters Between
The Second and Third Waves

Successfully Navigating The "Transformational Era" in Kentucky

History begins and ends with the mystery of the unknown, says the lead sentence in Microsoft Encarta's article entitled "Future as History." From the ancients' stargazing and other methods of trying to postulate plausible futures, to the now-New Age phenomenon of 15th century Nostradamus' visions, to George Orwell's 1984, through the recent genre of "futurists," predicting the future has been mankind's eternal fascination. But in the final analysis, it is always still shrouded in the mysteries of the unknown.

Perhaps the venerable business management professor and writer Peter F. Drucker is right. He has said, "The only way to predict the future is to create it." While there is much that we cannot know there is much that we can infer from trends, events and developments going on around us. And in order to do that well we must understand the contexts within which the future is driven by mankind, technology, and everyday occurrences.

The Overarching Ways People View the Future.

Robert Heilbroner says in his excellent book Visions of the Future that over all the four million years of mankind there have been only three distinct ways of viewing the future. By far the longest-lasting was the very passive belief and expectation that human life on earth will be like the past -- like man had always known it to be. Heilbroner calls this the view of "The Distant Past." It, he says, was a long night of resignation to fate and fortune.

With the dawning of the Industrial Revolution and mass political movements the second view began to reveal itself. With the science and mechanization of the 1700's -- with the move from agriculture to industry and from rural to urban and poor to "middle class" ... especially with the advent of democracy and capitalism, the view emerged throughout the Western, industrialized world that tomorrow would be better than today. It was a future-view he characterized as one of "hopefulness. "Now, this is often seen as a 'naive view' of our 'yesterday'," says Heilbroner.

But that view largely still remains with us during our time an era that Peter Drucker calls "The Age of Social Transformation." Our uncertain, sometimes troubled, but always promising, times lie in the transition between the Industrial Age and Knowledge Society. So, "Yesterday's" view of the future overlaps the third, that view -- for which Heilbronner shows appropriate reticence to venture saying "Tomorrow" -- he calls "Today." That's the cynical-to-cautiously optimistic contemporary view which began to surface with technology sometimes gone awry and capitalism's cyclical nature as experienced by the masses over time.

"Today's" view is supported by the popular opinion, which is substantiated by polling data, that Chicago Tribune writer R.C. Longworth stated in his September 17, 1995 syndicated column, that most middle class Americans think that they are better off than their forebears, but that they also expect their children to be worse off than they.

Longworth says that the middle class has separated into three parts: 1) the older, more affluent, post-war (World War II) segment; 2) the somewhat less affluent and secure "Woodstock," Vietnam era segment; and 3) the youth of the 1980s and 1990s who have "no expectations to prosperity." Indeed, since 1973, according to Longworth, the poor class in America has grown by 7% to now some 18.5% of the population. And due to downsizing -- with its eroding middle management ranks -- and the likes, America's middle class and its purchasing power have shrunk significantly.

Thus it is that that third view of seeing the future -- Today -- with virtually the same driving forces as Yesterday's view -- that is, science, technology, capitalism, democracy -- which sees that those "forces are no longer regarded unambiguously as carriers of progress." And Heilbronner says our world today is increasingly divided in two: One segment he calls "zones of peace;" the other he calls "zones of turmoil." These are not easily delineated geographically. Indeed, they both exist in the United States, in Kentucky, and throughout the world.

So here at last, as we move toward a new view of mankind's future, "Tomorrow" -- a new world of unlimited possibilities, those two "zones" of man are, and will remain, in conflict.

And essentially, the conundrum that we must resolve politically and socially amidst all the anxiety and conflict is whether we will vainly attempt to return to Yesterday or boldly move forward to Tomorrow, with all its uncertainties, granted, but also its immense possibilities.

Above All, It is Human Society That Counts.

We know at a gut level that everything we know is ever more rapidly changing before our eyes. The monikers of Industrial Society, Information Age, Knowledge Society and others are all around. But underlying these is human society -- life as we know it. In our enthusiasm, self-absorption, and sometimes our insensitivity, we must not forget that in the final analysis it is people that really matter! People count. All the rest are merely framework, means, methods, resources -- for producing better lives, outcomes and actualization, i.e., realization of the fullest potential for our ultimate resource and focus -- people, mankind.

The problem in this "age of parenthesis," this "transformational era," this transition period between Industrial Society and Knowledge Society, is, as Drucker shows, that so many people can't go forward. They are not prepared to accept the new world or to compete in Knowledge Society, so they ignore reality or vainly try to recapture the past -- and all its known quantities and shortcomings -- or they may attempt to forge an alternate "reality" of how they think things should be.

Despite this, the Kentucky Commission on Poverty asserts that it is imperative that whatever Kentucky does it must endeavor to bring everyone along on this thing called Progress. Not everyone has the wherewithal to be or become a "knowledge worker." Our efforts need to be sensitive to leading-edge, high-tech, Information Age thinking while remaining firmly footed on real-world Kentucky soil. We must take "high touch" (John Naisbitt, Megatrends, 1982) care not to exacerbate the adverse human-cost impacts of the present transformational era among our people who are ill-prepared to position themselves for Knowledge Society success. As well as economic security, the Commonwealth should, thus, give fitting attention to what Edward Marshall says in Transforming the Way We Work, the understanding that to human beings "safety" means psychological safety as well as physical and economic security.

And the recoil has already begun by those who feel threatened and powerless. Drucker's Post-Capitalist Society is a thoroughly intriguing analysis of this contemporary phenomenon. The irony is that, according to Drucker, so called "Knowledge Society" won't even arrive in full bloom for another ten to fifteen years. Until then, he says, throughout much of the Twenty-First Century mankind will be in turmoil. This shift will be much more difficult and distressing to the masses than was the shift from the agricultural to the industrial ages. That is because people's values and available skills were much more "transportable from the farm to the factory" than from today's work and world to tomorrow's. Every facet of human existence is being affected by this shift, and the turbulence is going to continue in all probability for the rest of our lives.

Economic Development Now Means Human and Community Development.

Peter Drucker wrote in the article "The Age of Social Transformation" (The Atlantic Monthly, November 1994), "There will be no 'poor' countries. There will only be ignorant countries." He goes on to assert that the same will be true for organizations, industries, and entities of all types.

Drucker also devotes a chapter of his 1993 book to "Labor, Capital and Their Future.' He points out that concomitant with the virtual disappearance of unionized labor we have moved into "an 'employee society' where labor is no longer an asset." He asserts that the Japanese understand this fact, whereas Americans do not. Japan, in contrast, is concerned about increasing production:

He cites Kentucky and Tennessee as examples of "poor rural states" which are "desperately trying to attract manufacturers who offer blue-collar jobs" -- those states competing against Third World nations. Meanwhile, "the Japanese argue -- convincingly -- that the supply of young people in the developing countries qualified for nothing but manual work in manufacturing is so large -- and will remain so large for at least another thirty years -- that worrying about the 'industrial base' is nonsense. A country that has the knowledge workers to design products and to market them will have no difficulty getting those products made at low cost and high quality."

"Economically as well as socially, it would be much more productive -- the Japanese argue -- to put the money spent to create blue-collar jobs in developed countries instead into advancing the country's education, and thus to ensure that youngsters learn enough to become qualified for knowledge work, or at least for high-level service work," proclaims Drucker.

He asserts that there is a place for manufacturing in developed countries, but manufacturing should be along the line of the state-of-the-art, high tech minimill steel plants (like Nucor at Crawfordsville, Indiana). He writes, "If a country has the knowledge base, it will also manufacture. But this manufacturing work will not be competitive if carried out by traditional blue-collar workers who serve the machine. In competitive manufacturing, the work will largely be done by knowledge workers whom the machine serves -- as computer consoles and computerized work stations serve the ninety-seven technicians in a steelmaking minimill." He says further, "Manual labor in making and moving things is rapidly becoming a liability rather than an asset. Knowledge has become the key resource for all work." He concludes, "The only long-term policy which promises success is for developed countries to convert manufacturing from being labor based into being knowledge based." It makes one wonder what assessment Drucker would make about a state whose "economic development" -- currently is so closely aligned with "First Wave" to "Second Wave" poultry-related endeavors

Critics are emerging across the board about states' "smokestack chasing" and "bidding for business" -- the so-called new "War Between the States." A recent study by Carl Rist, policy analyst for the Corporation for Enterprise Development, Washington, D.C., says that the costly incentives are "marginally effective at best and inconsequential at worst." Rist advises that the states would be better off investing in people, technology, existing businesses and infrastructure, the kinds of things that attract new businesses in the first place.

Once again, the focus is on developing human potential in an era characterized and buoyed by what Drucker terms "employee capitalism" and "pension fund capitalism" -- which is "capitalism without 'capital'," he says. Most of today's money capital, he notes, comes from those enormous pension-related money pools. And Drucker concludes that the function of this capital "will increasingly be to make knowledge effective in performance." That is, to assure that its prime "stakeholders" are the true beneficiaries of their "deferred wages."

Thus, what we now call "economic development" must -- and will -- evolve into human and community development. The days of what one might call industrial big game hunting should take a back seat to home-grown, within-the-borders, domestic-variety job creation activity through the support of capital formation/development and other means of supporting resident populations, firms and entrepreneurs.

New Views on What Constitutes and Contributes to Wealth.

Capital, capital formation, and economic development are buzzwords. But emerging realities must cause us to forge a new consensus about what these mean for the 21st Century. USAToday economic analyst Mark Memmot suggested in his September 18, 1995 column that the way we define wealth and capital needs broader interpretations and must include:

These, along with natural capital (land, minerals, materials, etc.), financial capital, and produced assets -- the traditional "goods and services" -- produce what we call wealth. Memmot says, "Old ways of thinking about economies may lead to disaster. Resources need to be protected. People need to be invested in. And wealth isn't measured by production alone."

Memmot says we may need to rethink priorities. "A nation that ignores or fails to adequately protect and invest in any of those areas risks ruining the long-term health of its economy in favor of short-term gains. It won't achieve sustainable growth...: (we must be committed to ) Giving future generations as many opportunities as, if not more than, we have had ourselves."

He asserts, "For nations that aren't blessed with abundant natural resources, the key to becoming wealthy lies in their people." He says that nations that invest in their people's education, training, nutrition, and health care rank high in the creation of wealth: "They (their citizens) can expect to earn good incomes most of their lives." With more of these responsibilities now settling squarely on the shoulders of the state, we believe this is worthy advice for Kentucky and her people as well.

Drucker observes in his November 1994 Atlantic Monthly article, "Increasingly, the true investment in the knowledge society is not in machines and tools but in the knowledge of the knowledge machines. Without that knowledge the machines, no matter how advanced and sophisticated are unproductive." He cites these examples:

Thus, Drucker observes that organizations with which knowledge workers work need the knowledge workers far more than the knowledge workers need them: "Knowledge knows no boundaries. There is no domestic knowledge and no international knowledge. There is only knowledge. And with knowledge becoming the key resource, there is only a world economy, even though the individual organization in its daily activities operates within a national, regional, or even local setting."

Beyond this, Peter Drucker says in his 1993 book Post-Capitalist Society that Knowledge is the resource for today and the future. Our people are our foremost capital, and our children -- and they are all our children -- are our basic capital for tomorrow. If knowledge is the resource, people are the only means to develop, expand, apply, optimize, and augment it! And in truth the only reason to do it. Viewing "kids as capital" may seem a bit crass to some, but, in fact, they are! So the Kentucky Commission on Poverty has clearly set as one of its major objectives the development and expansion of human potential, particularly that of our children, throughout the great Commonwealth of Kentucky.

We must encourage more worker-, family-, and community-friendly work environments. In the Knowledge Society just around the corner Drucker points out that it is the worker, not the workplace, that will own the basic resource and tool of production: Knowledge! Therefore, the competition will not be so much for industries as qualified workers. We're already seeing that in Northern Kentucky and other more affluent areas of the Commonwealth. This while many unqualified, ill-prepared would-be workers go unemployed. Meanwhile, "qualified workers" think and act like "independent entrepreneurs," to use an Ellen Goodman phrase.

Columnist Goodman says that two troubling factors worry even these workers: anxiety about employer/corporate actions -- resulting in employees' diminished loyalty to any employer" and the general "loss of the sense of community." She wrote in her September 26, 1995, column on the second breakup (the recent 1995 one) of AT&T, "The old rules and bonds between owners and workers have been cracking everywhere. Employers and employees often seem like two people trying to maintain a relationship while they're both out dating." That scenario will continue until the "knowledge worker" eventually gains virtual total mastery of his/her employment destiny; the "human connections" will then determine which enterprises rise and fall, succeed and fail.

The Ascending Significance of Investing in People.

Human resources already do dictate desired outcomes. Ray Smith, chairman and CEO of Bell Atlantic, speaking about Rosabeth Moss Kanter's new book, World Class, says, "The information economy puts a premium on the quality of human and intellectual resources" -- what Kanter calls the three c's: concepts, competence, and connections.' World Class gives communities and businesses a blueprint for claiming citizenship in the global community by replacing the declining significance of place with the ascending significance of people."

Dr. Edward M. Marshall also adds that the new, emerging workplace must become more "collaborative." In his engaging new book, Transforming the Way We Work: The Power of the Collaborative Workplace, Marshall illustrates that the new workplace will remain highly competitive -- and assertive" -- while also being high on cooperativeness" -- accommodating to workers. In addition, a high degree of compromising will occur rather than the more-likely-today, bureaucratic strategy of avoidance. Core operating agreements between employees and employers will define the culture and environment of the workplace. So it would appear that while large labor unions may be in decline, small workplace-specific employer-employee collaborations will provide the vibrancy of tomorrow's workplace. Joint actions at times of needed, critical "process interventions" will sustain and enhance that vibrancy and serve as an indicator of continued success and viability for the enterprise. The following chart is illustrative of that process.

 

 

 

The psychology of the change process.
Transforming the Way We Work by Edward M. Marshall, Ph.D., published by the American Management Association, 1995

Certainly, there will be potentially troubling social consequences to these shifts. "For developed countries, too, the shift to knowledge-based work poses enormous social challenges," Drucker asserts. For example, there will be, he says, 1) more differentiated work and 2) basic change in the human condition. These will affect human values and commitment and will present new problems for society to handle. He says we do not yet know what that future will look like, but we can be assured that it will be different from what we now know.

We already, though, see some of it evolving. First, as Peter Drucker notes, the rise of the industrial worker and the "corporation man" was the most stabilizing social development in the Western World. Also as noted in Post-Capitalist Society and as summarized in his November, 1994, article. "The Age of Social Transformation," in The Atlantic Monthly, the advent of Knowledge Society promises to be increasingly more de-stabilizing to our society to the extent that many more people will likely fail -- while at the same time it will be imminently possible for more people than ever to be successful! This perhaps sets a stage for a potential tug of war. It may take the form of a "class conflict" between the new knowledge worker" -- a small, specialized and highly powerful minority -- and the mass of tradition-bound people -- as individuals and as workers Drucker predicts this kind of " New">class conflict" between the "large minority of knowledge workers" and the societal majority of undeveloped or underdeveloped worker who will lack competitive Knowledge Society skills and "make their living traditionally, either by manual work, whether skilled or unskilled, or by work in services, whether skilled or unskilled." But "knowledge workers" will drive the economy, dictate worker conditions, and enable economic and enterprise success. So Kentucky must prepare itself and" -- primarily through appropriate education and training, its younger generations" -- young adults and heads of families and children.

If we agree that we must value workers more in order to receive the best work from them, we must certainly also say that we must demonstrate that we value our children more highly in order to benefit, in time, from their creative and productive energy. We must provide the most nurturing environment we possibly can for our children in order for them to realize their potential. While a country like China, for example, is bashed by some for its one-child policy, one thing certain can be said for Chinese parents and China in general: they love and heavily invest themselves in the nurturing and development of their children.

Michael Crichton's new book, The Lost World, is based on a relevant premise. As reported in the September 21, 1995, USAToday, Crichton's thesis in the book is that the dinosaurs became extinct because of " negative behavior patterns." When a group of scientists returns to Jurassic Park' s Isla Nublar and The Lost World's Isla Sorna they find a " terrible social disorder." The dinosaurs live violently with their own species and they do not care for their offspring. Crichton says that this parallels what's happening in our country with "social collapse, abandoned children, crime, and widespread fear of violence."

Children of all ages and places have tended to, as the sage poem relates, "learn what they live." And children will, as research shows, tend to realize the expectations with which they grow up! And even on the downside, Plato understood as well the negative potential in his day when he gave this advice, "You get the behavior you tolerate."

Catching the Wave, Riding the Tide.

It was just 1970 when Alvin Toffler introduced us to the concept of disorienting "Future Shock." Indeed, we are "blessed" but at the same time overwhelmed by the pace of technology and knowledge.

This interesting quotation explains a great deal: "There is more information every day in The New York Times than the average seventeenth English country gentleman ever knew."

We are all familiar with the phenomenal progress of medical knowledge and discovery during our lifetime. Indeed, most everything that is known about human medicine, it seems, has come during those relatively few years of this century.

In Toffler's last book" -- written with his wife, Heidi, War and Anti-War: Survival at the Dawn of the 21st Century, Toffler devotes an entire chapter to how wealth is created in a Third Wave economy:

Toffler says, "Taken together, these ten features of the Third Wave economy, among many others, add up to a monumental change in how wealth is created. The conversion of the United States, Japan, and Europe to this new system, though not yet complete, represents the single most important change in the global economy since the spread of factories brought about by the industrial revolution." And it's all picking up speed almost exponentially.

Just recount Toffler's "Waves." The First Wave was the Agricultural Revolution, commencing around 8000 B.C. and ending in the hundred years preceding 1750 A.D. The Second Wave was the Industrial Revolution. That "transformational era" for the most part occurred between 1650 and 1750. So-called Industrial Civilization reigned supreme through approximately 1955 to 1970, the same era that brought the advent of Information Society, which is the Third Wave we are now in. Peter Drucker says the resulting evolution of this era will be Knowledge Society -- again perhaps ten to fifteen years from now. Already, Toffler is predicting the Fourth Wave, which he says will be a merging of the informational and biological "revolutions" into some unknown but tremendously jolting form.

Perhaps this will come in terms of the fusion of man and machine" -- or at least a "blurring of the boundaries," like HAL in the movie 2001: A Space Odyssey, which some cyber-gurus are already predicting as imminent and do-able. After all, as one cyber wizard recently noted, what is DNA but another information-data transfer and manipulation system, more sophisticated for sure, but similar to the software that now runs our automated systems.

In any event, just look at the developing trend: The First Wave lasted some 9,650 years. The Second Wave lasted between 205 and 370 years, depending on how one reckons its beginning and end. The Third Wave will, it appears, last some 55 to 80 years. And in all likelihood the Fourth Wave and the subsequent ones will be even shorter than the Third -- and perhaps each succeeding one briefer than the one before it.

So just the known and expected progression of change and the rapid expansion of knowledge are part of the phenomenal time we're experiencing. The veritable "knowledge explosion," the comprehension overload it entails with most of us, and its societal impact. "How did we get here so soon?" we might ask.

Even for those who love the technology, people are seemingly always constantly "behind the curve" in mastering all the new gadgetry and personal "productivity tools" that are so universally available! This dizzying pace adds to the apprehension and cynicism about our technological advances and our feeling of "being out of control.". George Pompidou, former president of France, may have had it right, though, when he said, "There are three roads to ruin; women, gambling and technicians. The most pleasant is women, the quickest is with gambling, but the surest is with technicians."

Still, pray as we might, we're not going to slow it down. Physicist J. Robert Oppenheimer, the father of the atomic bomb, bore that out when in 1954 he said, "When you see something that is technically sweet, you go ahead and do it and you argue about what to do about it only after you have had your technical success."

Indeed, the Western World "worships" its technological capabilities. It characterizes and supports us, but it also divides and blinds us, and that is why we must take extra care for human concerns as we prepare for our place and role in the future. " New">High touch" must proceed in tandem with "high tech" if Kentucky is to successfully navigate its way to a better Tomorrow.

Balancing Technology With "Touch" and "Imprudence" With Prudence.

Relying on technology alone blinds us in ways that the Spanish philosopher and essayist Jose Ortega y Gasset wrote about in his classic 1930 work, Revolt of the Masses, in which he advocated the rule of the "intellectual elite" -- New">the wise and the truly learned across a broad spectrum of knowledge" -- versus what he viewed as "mob control," New"> or populism.

In one chapter entitled "The Barbarism of 'Specialisation (sic)'," he criticized specialists who know only one "tiny corner of the universe" versus the intellectuals of the past who were "encyclopedi -- " in their knowledge and broader in their outlook. The specialist, he says, is neither "learned" in the broader sense nor "ignorant" either, because he is well versed in one very small area. Ortega y Gasset" -- writing in 1930! -- says the specialist is "a learned ignoramus." The problem inevitably comes, according to Ortega y Gasset, when self-believing "learned" man impudently asserts himself in areas where he is unqualified to do so. It happens all the time, and it is often injurious to society when "technicians" -- or other "specialists" -- take control of arenas where they are out of their element. Ortega y Gasset writes:

So, Ortega y Gasset believed that serious, learned, and cultured philosophy should be the fundamental basis for the privilege of ruling over the general affairs of men. Knowledge of philosophy and history -- a clear idea of what civilisation is," he says -- are the prerequisites. But philosophers themselves need not necessarily be the ones in charge, only for the rule of philosophy to exist, he says.

We see that today's information gatekeepers -- including the "cyber-elites" -- who someone has called "a wild libertarian lot" -- often approach the "new world" with no sense of place or connectedness. They have mastered the new art of controlling and manipulating information systems to their own advantage. We used to have the "intellectuals" in charge. We thought of them as the cultural elites.

So it is that contemporary man probably has much greater need of "classical" foundations than of arcane scientific fact or ritual. Indeed, most of what we praise in the name of " New">science" is hardly more than subscribing to the accepted body of technical. Anyway, real science is virtually always out there on the fringes" -- outside the paradigm, to use a term popularized by Thomas Kuhn and Joel Arthur Barker. So the lesson in this must be that we should always keep our "technology" in proper perspective.

Our brains are flooded. With more to know and be responsible for, a growing number of people appear to feel that what they really need to know or to enhance concern those things which are more "foundational" and more philosophical in nature. It's a key theme running true in our time -- as opposed to Yesterday when the belief in "science" reigned supreme. Today's hunger is for what one might characterize as " New">spiritual," not religious, but marked by the highest qualities of human actualization versus natural-world discovery.

Peter Drucker's contribution to this debate came as he wrote (in the November 1994 Atlantic Monthly), "There was endless debate in the middle ages about the hierarchy of knowledge, with philosophy claiming to be the 'queen.' We long ago gave up that fruitless argument. There is no higher or lower knowledge. When the patient's complaint is an ingrown toenail, the podiatrist's knowledge, not that of the brain surgeon, controls -- even though the brain surgeon has received many more years of training and commands a much larger fee. And if an executive is posted to a foreign country, the knowledge he needs, and in a hurry, is fluency in a foreign language -- something every native of that country has mastered by the age of three, without any great investment." No, in Knowledge Society knowledge is "knowledge" only when "applied in action."

"Complexity Theory" and Community Building.

Much of this chapter deals with the impact of the increasing pace of change and the importance of responding quickly" -- and ultimately, in "real time." But another issue that looms prominently is the diminished need for large scale and complexity" -- both of which are dis-economies in the scheme of the Information Age.

If it's not too much of a stretch, let us use the example put forth by Michael Crichton in Jurassic Park and now The Lost World. As Time magazine noted in its September 25, 1995 issue, one thing that can be said about author and Harvard-educated M.D. Michael Crichton is that he always gets his scientific detail right. One of his premises in Jurassic Park involved "chaos theory" and how one small element or event could cascade into a system-wide collapse" -- or on the positive side, one might suppose, create serendipity or fortuity.

In The Lost World Crichton makes another "major excursion into cutting-edge science"into the "trendy field of complexity theory." (Time, September 25, 1995) To continue the Time analysis on this subject, "Building on chaos theory, the big thing of the 1980s, complexity theory argues that groups of randomly operating independent units -- amino acids floating in primordial seas, humans acting in their own interests, populations of animals -- can spontaneously and without outside direction self-organize themselves into complex systems -- self-reproducing DNA molecules, functioning economies, social groups. The downside is that these complex systems can easily become unstable given the slightest change in conditions."

Paraphrasing Crichton's own written word, underlying complexity theory is a belief that the complexity of the world -- and he notes such systems as corporations in the marketplace, neurons in the human brain, enzyme cascades within a single cell, the group behavior of migratory birds" -- New">conceals an underlying order which had previously eluded science, and which is so complex that prior to computers it had not been possible to study them.

Also, once formed, complex systems will then adapt or in time become extinct. Using as the vehicle of his views his character Ian Malcolm, the mathematician, Crichton writes, "But even more important is the way complex systems seem to strike a balance between the need for order and the imperative to change. Complex systems tend to locate themselves at a place we call the edge of chaos.' We imagine the edge of chaos as a place where there is enough innovation to keep a living system vibrant, and enough stability to keep it from collapsing into anarchy. It is a zone of conflict and upheaval, where the old and the new are constantly at war. Finding the balance point must be a delicate matter -- if a living system drifts too close, it risks falling over into incoherence and dissolution; but if the system moves too far away from the edge, it becomes rigid, frozen, totalitarian. Both conditions lead to extinction. Too much change is as destructive as too little. Only at the edge of chaos can complex systems flourish."

This premise helps us understand why regimented, controlling governmental actions won't work: they stifle creativity, dynamism, and synergy. In fact, Peter Drucker strongly asserts the "futility of politics" as a vehicle of social change. He wrote in the November 1994 Atlantic Monthly, that social transformations that have lasting, permanent effect occur far below "the violence of the political surface" "like ocean currents deep below the hurricane-tormented sea."

Government and political leaders can set the stage, but only affected people act out the roles which produce social change. Increasingly, they do so in self-organized communities of interest. Drucker calls these, collectively, "the social sector." He briefly reviewed community effort in America as follows:

Later on, Drucker says, "The right answer to the question Who takes care of the social challenges of the knowledge society? Is neither the government nor the employing organization. The answer is a separate and new social sector." This builds on the strong tradition of volunteerism that Alexis de Tocqueville observed in his 1831-32 visit to America (originally intended to study the prison system here). De Tocqueville published his observations in 1835 (part I) and 1840 (part II) in Democracy in America.

That volunteer spirit is alive and well in America. You will recall that John Naisbitt's megatrend number six is a return to self-help, or "Americ"'s traditional sense of self-reliance," as he calls it. All the recent data seems to bear out that while Americans tend to doubt that government can resolve problems on a national and state scale that people feel they can still solve their own problems on the community and neighborhood scale, however they choose to logically define that "community" that they feel they can deal with.

Drucker writes:

It is for this reason that the Kentucky Commission on Poverty believes that something on the order of a modified model of the State of Oregon's community empowerment/collaboration legislation is needed to prompt, validate, and enable Kentucky communities' self-organized initiatives -- within a broad framework of agreed outcomes, standards, and flexible approaches -- to set about solving their own social problems in ways appropriate to each.

To create the broadest possible community ownership and synergy, these citizen- and consumer-driven collaboratives might serve as the local partner with the respective state agencies to help devise and oversee local efforts, but they probably should not compete with local service providers nor serve as conduits for public funding.

A number of models for this approach" -- all different, but all effective -- already exist in Kentucky. At least four of these (the Gateway area; Louisville-Jefferson County; Northern Kentucky; and Owensboro-Daviess County) have been sanctioned by the Kentucky Commission for Families and Children. These initiatives represent the kind of self-defined, self-organizing initiatives that 1) overcome the problems of complexity, 2) engage the social and private sectors and create synergy, and 3) predict what this Commission, the General Assembly and the people of Kentucky want: successful outcomes and brighter futures for all our citizens.

While such collaboratives may seem at first blush to be somewhat loosely constructed, they, in fact, would carry the same safeguards on public resources presently found in more controlled, restrictive, and bureaucratic approaches. But community collaboratives are much more dynamic. And possessing truly shared community ownership, they invite everyone and every organization to "the community table" to bring what they can to help set and achieve community goals. Is there anyone left out there that does not understand the critical importance of the dynamic of ownership? That does not accrue when one party, political or otherwise, stands supreme and all others function as "junior partners" -- if indeed the concept of partnership could even be conceived in that kind of configuration. No, people and organizations today respond to and flourish in an environment of empowerment, relationships, teamwork, and shared goals.

The various interests are -- quite rightly for themselves -- strategizing, positioning themselves, and working to create the next " New">paradigm" for the delivery of human services. With block grants and increased state discretion over virtually every human service program's rules and design, there will indeed be a new day in addressing human needs within the Commonwealth. The Kentucky Commission on Poverty would suggest that it is not nearly so important who or what entities control or "deliver" human services as how the system is conceived, implemented, and directed. All of us are aware of the saying (which is no doubt paraphrased here) that "For every complex problem there is a simple solution...which is logical, neat, plausible -- and wrong!" Does this Commonwealth want " New">solutions" that neat, controlled and -- like previous politically soothing approaches -- ineffective? Or do we want results? We believe the public outcry is for effectiveness, broad citizen and institutional participation, and good outcomes (results!) for our people.

If what we are proposing appears to be akin to working on the "edge of chaos," remember that that is where complex systems flourish! For emphasis sake, let us repeat the thinking, as expressed so well by Michael Crichton in The Lost World, "But even more important is the way complex systems seem to strike a balance between the need for order and the imperative to change. Complex systems tend to locate themselves at a place we call the edge of chaos.' We imagine the edge of chaos as a place where there is enough innovation to keep a living system vibrant, and enough stability to keep it from collapsing into anarchy. It is a zone of conflict and upheaval, where the old and the new are constantly at war. Finding the balance point must be a delicate matter -- if a living system drifts too close, it risks falling over into incoherence and dissolution; but if the system moves too far away from the edge, it becomes rigid, frozen, totalitarian. Both conditions lead to extinction. Too much change is as destructive as too little. Only at the edge of chaos can complex systems flourish."

Before we leave this section, one last word on the importance of relationships in producing creative, synergistic, and effective -- solutions to intractable societal, community, and family problems. That might best be summarized in this thought: There is no "power" (influence) where there are no relationships!

Dr. Vaughn L. Grisham, Director of the McLean Institute of the University of Mississippi at Oxford, is one of the foremost community development experts in this nation. Speaking at the "Communities of the Future" conference at Western Kentucky University in May 1994, Dr. Grisham said:

We pause in the middle of Dr. Grisham's comment with this side note: It is worth noting that the perceived leaders in the Delta were in fact the leaders from the Delta but they were not the leaders in the Delta, although that was where they resided. The "underlying order" of that social system was that the indigenous leaders were black -- the majority sector there" -- and generally poor, not white and affluent. When the real leaders in the Delta were identified and engaged, progress and positive change began to occur. Dr. Grisham continued: Every New Day Begins in the Darkness of Midnight.

The non-fiction novel by John Berendt entitled Midnight in the Garden of Good and Evil carries this account of Savannah, Georgia's resistance to change:

But sweeping, institutional, necessary change eventually did come to Savannah" -- or is at least in progress, due largely to a substantial Annie E. Casey Foundation community-building initiative -- the Chatham/Savannah Youth Futures Authority -- in that city.

Are there not many parallels between Savannah and our culturally rich Commonwealth? We can keep the world out; we can ignore the potential and perils of the Industrial-to-Knowledge Age transition era we are in; we can be America's quaint "Savannah." But let us make a conscious choice of our possible futures: poor, quaint, marginal versus progressive, contemporary, and prosperous. Kentucky can have it either way. We can create the future we want for ourselves and our progeny, but we must choose now before our progressive options on Tomorrow expire and we are left forever behind.

Bright Morning of New Beginnings.

Daniel Burris says in Technotrends that we are at the convergence of "Four Great Rivers of Change." They are: 1) technological innovation; 2) globalization; 3) decentralization of power and authority; and 4) global demographic changes" -- and "2,3,and 4 are tributaries of 1." We are not immune. Indeed, we are absolutely caught in their wake. In her new book, World Class, Rosabeth Moss Kanter terms it aptly -- and expressively -- as a "globalization cascade" which is driven by the four processes of:

Kanter uses Irish poet William Butler Keats' line "the center cannot hold" to describe what's going on. "Centers are being decentralized," she says. Monolithic "headquarters" are becoming veritable mail drops while key business and staff functions are actually occurring wherever key decision makers happen to be -- and today that can literally be anywhere.

Information technology changes everything. Anyplace and every place on earth can be the "center." So in place of monoliths, "centers of excellence" are emerging in their place. Would you care to guess where the world's first Internet bank is located? Pineville, Kentucky. Believe it or not. It's called Security First Network Bank, FSB. Well, it just goes to illustrate that Kentucky and Kentuckians can do or be anything they want in this exciting new era. Our only limits are our creativity, vision, energy and desire.

Another example appeared September 24, 1995, on the CBS Nightly News. It seems that the small town of Lusk, Wyoming, population of some 1,650 persons, now thinks it can be a world-class center. It has tied all its classrooms into the Internet to orientate its children and its citizens to the fact that they now have direct and immediate access to the Information Age! The world is, thus, their oyster. That's the kind of thinking that can propel anyone, any community onto the world stage as a vibrant participant and competitor. The former advantages of location, scale, and complexity are turned upside down. Reversed! Electronic pathways link everyone and every place. We -- each one of us, if we so desire" -- are "the center." Now if we only work to create ourselves as a "center of excellence" the world might well beat a path to our door.

The world is inviting our participation. The changing world represents wonderful new opportunities for us to make "quantum leaps" forward. So, behind the turmoil of this transformational era there are opportunities galore.

Readiness for Change.

Politically and socially there is at least one imposing force in our favor -- that is timing... and our readiness or expectancy for change. So then, what is it that might make one suppose that we are so ripe for dramatic change? Some call it "The Millennial Effect."

In less than six short years we will meet the "New Millennium." January 1, 2000 and the thousand years of human history that follow. Based on Dionysus' calculation error in 525 A.D., the Third Millennium may have arrived as early as 1993 or will actually be here any time between now and the year 2000, notwithstanding what our calendar says. And true to form we've been in "crazy" times befitting a millennial transition for some years now. Many "futurists," including John Naisbitt and Marvin Cetron, attribute much of today's upheaval to this "Millennial Effect," as a notable fact of contemporary life.

John Naisbitt and Patricia Aburdene have an extraordinary account of the last millennium, 1000 A.D., in their book Megatrends 2000. Naisbitt and Aburdene say that in the 990s most of the Western world believed the world would end in 1000 A.D. Call it "Millennia mania," according to some. Naisbitt and Aburdene relate Oscar Halecki's work, The Millennium of Europe, which speaks of "the vision of the year 1000." That "vision" did not produce the popularly expected end of the world ot the "Millennium" of Christ's reign, but in fact did influence Europe for generations. (One outgrowth was that, "thanks to the postponement of Judgement Day," as millions viewed it, many grand churches went up throughout Europe, particularly in France and Germany.)

Whether with religious or secular connotations, the Millennium is "an intensifier" in our already troubling times. It's an energizer of the religious, scientific, social, and political.

In her September 29, 1995 column in the New York Times, columnist Maureen Dowd chided politicians for "vaporizing about the meaning of change" within our society and for " looking for alienation in all the wrong places." She says, "The information superhighway is not what's rattling this country. What's rattling this country are politicians who worry about the perception of leadership instead of leading on moral and social issues." She questions the popular premise that our era is any more tumultuous in term of change than that of our forebears:

Clearly, our time is no worse than any other era of change. Every generation faces it and deals with it. So will we. It's what life is all about. And we are up to the task. The real issue is how well we will negotiate the course of change. "All of life is an experiment. The more experiments you make, the better," said Ralph Waldo Emerson.

Leadership into the "Promised Land."

With the technological, economic, and political environments changing so fast, how do we move to our own advantage? In Future Work: Putting Knowledge to Work in the Knowledge Economy, ( The Free Press, a division of Macmillan, Inc.) Charles D. Winslow and William L. Bramer advise that it's not just the technology but our using the right approach to technology that makes the difference. We must take care to understand the context of events, trends, possibilities, or we will either take precipitous action based on invalid assumptions or we will ignore what we see and what's needed to be done. A sense of relevancy, Winslow and Bramer suggest, only emerges through "the elements that might nourish and quench our thirst: meaning, analysis, history, context." Otherwise, they say, it s as though were in Samuel Taylor Coleridge's "The Rime of the Ancient Mariner," "We swim in a sea of information, yet cannot drink any of it: it is too coarse, too salty."

Daniel Burris (with Roger Gittines), writing in Technotrends: How to Use Technology to Go Beyond Your Competition, identifies four keys to success in this technological environment. Those "Four Keys to Success" are: Integration, Flexibility, Communications, and Orchestration. The first three are pretty clear to us, but the key of orchestration, it appears, is not either well understood or utilized by American public or corporate policy and decision makers. It should be. Burris cites Japan's Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI) as the model. "Without an orchestrator you can't have everyone singing off the same sheet of music." What we see in America instead of a MITI approach, says Burris, is like "the western sheriff's posse that saddles up and rides off in every direction. That's what happens most of the time."

This "orchestration" is not analogous to our traditional control techniques. It's about creating desired outcomes, a vision, and the means and the benchmarks to achieve and measure progress toward the overarching goal(s). Winslow and Bramer say:

We don't need more hierarchical control systems. We need more empowering support systems to enable our resource-rich state and creative people to flourish!

And to enable that we need a new approach in leadership. In Transforming the Way We Work, Dr. Edward Marshall advises that there must be a fundamental cultural change and new approach to leading and managing in the new, more collaborative ways of work and governance. The is an emerging shift in how we work -- and work together to achieve common goals. "Time after time, the message keeps coming back: Collaboration is the way people naturally want to work together," Marshall says.

Leadership is the essential element that must emerge. Perhaps Max DePree said best what we are looking for in his book Leadership Is an Art, "The first responsibility of a leader is to define reality. The last is to say thank you. In between the two, the leader must become a servant and a debtor."

Then in addition to demonstrating the appropriate style and approach to leadership, transition-era leaders must understand the basic substance and needs of the era. Drucker offers these recommendations, which must largely be accepted as by faith:

Drucker concludes, "If the twentieth century was one of social transformations, the twenty-first century needs to be one of social and political innovations, whose nature cannot be so clear to us now as their necessity."

We began this Information Age/Knowledge Society chapter with a quote from Microsoft Encarta '95, a technology-based reference perhaps appropriate to this topic, so let us close as well with its conclusion from the article entitled "Future As History:"

We hurtle forward into a future that is forever unknown while history watches, daily transforming the future into the past. Like our ancestors, we live on the razor's edge of time, poised between the known and the possible, hoping to discover ourselves and in our past some small clue as to what awaits us.

Hopefully, this chapter sets the stage for providing useful insights in helping best accomplish that.

Context of this presentation:

This document was prepared upon the September 11, 1995 request of the Kentucky Commussion on Poverty to serve as a basis for a chapter in its report entitled FAMILIES FIRST: Uniting Kentucky Through Strengthening Communities. This document attempts to place the issue of poverty into the context, nature, and impact of current economic/institutional restructurings -- along with a bit of history and philosophy. It also attempts to synthesize popular opinions on the related societal transformation, i.e, the transition to "knowledge society." And, in the writer's opinion, it suggests what Kentucky should do differently to address its increasingly critical human resource development needs.

                                                                             Ronald Lee Logsdon, Member
                                                                             Kentucky Commission on Poverty
September 25, 1995


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

APPENDIX

The following is taken from...
Technotrends: How to Use Technology to Go Beyond Your Competition by Daniel Burris, with Roger Gittines
(1993) Published by Harper Business, a division of Harper Collins Publishers

The Shifting Focus

Of Corporate Culture

From
To
Status quo Rapid change
Industry performance Individual action
Incremental innovation Fundamental change
Expansion Consolidation
Sameness Redirection
Corporate groups Partnerships
New technology as a cost New technology as a necessity
Cost/growth/control Quality/innovation/service
Bottom line of last quarter Global market share
Of Management
From
To
Management Leadership
Cheerleaders Visionaries
Focus on process Focus on strategy
Manage by control Manage by commitment
Decision by command Decision by consensus
Accepting the status quo Taking risks
Reacting to change Initiating change
Managing today's crisis today Managingtomorrow's opportunities today
Solving today's problems today Solving tomorrow's problems today
Individual work Teamwork
Controlling others Empowering others
Negative reinforcement of bad behaviors Positive reinforcement of good behaviors
Fixing the blame Fixing the problem
Taking credit Giving acknowledgments
Periodic improvement Continuous improvement
Organization man Migrant professional
Centralized decision making Decentralized decision making
Reward and promote by seniority Reward and promote by performance
Of Human Resources
From
To
Focus on task Focus on process
Job titles Job skills
Individual values Shared values
Isolated specialists Multiskilled generalists
Work with your hands Work with your brains
Workers' gloves protect hands Workers' gloved protect product
Upgrading technology Upgrading people
Periodic training Just-in-time training
Job security Job adaptability
Guarantee your employment Guarantee your employability
Organization man Migrant professional
Retirement at age 65 Re-engagement several times in a life
Of Price vs. Speed
From
To
Price Speed
Pay for products Pay for time
Value material wealth Value free time
Of Information
From
To
Access to capital Access to information
More information Focused information
Static information Dynamic information
Automation and support Integration and coordination
Focus on new technology Focus on new applications of technology
Of Computers
From
To
Information Age Communication Age
Collecting information Sharing information
Words and numbers Data and voice and video
Data processing Decision processing
Fit user to interface Fit interface to user
Nice to have (features) Need to have (features)
Client server to mainframe Client server using UNIX
Proprietary systems Open systems
Gigabits Terabits
Character interface Graphic-user interface
Profits from hardware Profits from software
Programming by programmers Programming by users
Repair national infrastructure Repair national infostructure
Paper used for information storage Paper used for information display
Of Manufacturing
From
To
Sell what they make Make what sells
Premanufacture to anticipate sales Manufacture when ordered
Predemand manufacturing On-demand manufacturing
Mass production Lean production
Large inventory Just-in-time inventory
Long cycle times Short cycle times
Mastery of the art of replication Mastery of the art of innovation
Focus on what to make Focus on how to make it
Quality manufacturing Flexible manufacturing
Focus on quality Focus on design
Design for assembly Design for disassembly
Upgrade internal infrastructure Upgrade internal infostructure
Build a better product Build a better path to the customer
Employees as assemblers Employees as problem solvers
Mass production (common products) Customized mass production (common products with unique features)
Of Globalization
From
To
Design for assembly Design for disassembly
Foreign competition invades manufacturing Foreign competition invades services
Thinking global Being global
Focus on internal market Focus on global market
Global competition Global collaboration
Independence Interdependence
Of Cultural Barriers to International Marketing and Their Shift
From
To
(Most culture bound) (Least culture bound)
Consumer products Industrial products
Established product categories New products and categories
Simple technology Complex technology
Items used in home Items used away from home
National Focus: United States vs. Japan and Germany
United States Focus: Japan and Germany Focus:
Financially driven Large industry groups
Short-term focus Long-term focus
Antagonistic toward rivals Collaboration with rivals
Industry Shift in Focus
Law
From
To
Litigation Mediation and arbitration
Logistics
From
To
Goods Services
Television News
From
To
Report on something that has happened Report on something is happening
Environment
From
To
Town dumps Regional landfills
Dumping Waste reduction and recycling
Electronic Data Interchange (EDI)
From
To
Big-unit shipments Small-unit shipments
Managing inventory Managing information

Thirty New Rules
    1. If It Works, It's Obsolete.
    2. Past Success Is Your Worst Enemy.
    3. Learn to Fail Fast.
    4. Make Rapid Change Your Best Friend.
    5. See the New Big Picture (because technology alters reality).
    6. Solve Tomorrow's Predictable Problems Today.
    7. Think Ten Years Out and Plan Back to the Present.
    8. Build Change into the Plan or Product.
    9. Focus on Your Customer's Future Needs (based on the new big picture).
    10. Sell the Future Benefit of What You Do.
    11. Build a Better Path to the Customer.
    12. Give Your Customers the Ability (to do what they can't do, but would have wanted to do,
    if they only knew they could have done it).
    13. Time Is the Currency of the '90s.
    14. Leverage Time with Technology.
    15. Enter the Communication Age.
    16. Render Your Cash Cow Obsolete (before others do it for you).
    17. Upgrade Technology and Upgrade People.
    18. Creatively Apply Technology.
    19. Network with All.
    20. Re-become an Expert.
    21. Find Out What the Other Guy Is Doing and Do Something Else.
    22. Change the Way People Think.
    23. Develop Collaborative Interactions.
    24. Don't Fix the Blame, Fix the Problem.
    25. Re-invent Successes of the Past Using the New Tools.
    26. Re-invent Failures of the Past (as the successes they were meant to be).
    27. High Touch Means High Cost.
    28. Use Old Technology in New Ways
    29. Once a Care Is in the Deck, It Will Be Played.
    30. Take Your Biggest Problem and Skip It.

Nine Revolutions the New Tools Will Create
    1. Revolutionize the delivery system of products and services:
      a. Telecomputer
      b. Advanced Compact Disks
      c. Electronic Data Interchange (EDI)
    2. Revolutionize the way we communicate:
      a. Personal Communication Networks (PCN)
      b. Desktop Videoconferencing
      c. Digital Cellular Telephones
    3. Revolutionize the way we use and view television:
      a. Digital Interactive Television
      b. Advanced Flat-Panel Displays
    4. Revolutionize the acceptance and use of computers:
      a. Electronic Notepads
      b. Advanced Expert Systems
      c. Object-Oriented Programming (OOP)
    5. Revolutionize the way we individualize and personalize education:
      a. Multimedia Computers
    6. Revolutionize the way we internalize, understand, and use massive amounts of data:
      a. Parallel Processing Computers
      b. Advanced Simulations
      c. Digital Imaging
    7. Revolutionize medicine and agriculture:
      a. Recombinant DNA Technology (rDNA)
      b. Antisense Technology
      c. Endoscopic Technology
    8. Provide the foundation for revolutionary new products and variations of old products:
      a. Fuzzy Logic
      b. Neutral Networks
      c. Diamond Thin-Films
      d. Antinoise Technology
    9. Revolutionize manufacturing
      a. Computer Integrated Manufacturing (CIM) b. Multisensory Mobile Robotics


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